Comments on: The Syrian Gambit http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/ news, views and comment... Thu, 23 May 2013 12:13:30 +0000 hourly 1 By: Alex http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15449 Alex Tue, 04 Sep 2012 21:35:47 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15449 Wrap up: ‘”There will be no dialogue with the opposition prior to the Syrian army’s imposition of security & stability”‘

Russian sources indicate that the recent ‘attacks’ in Damascus were carried with ordinances slightly stronger than ‘sound bombs.’
“… (AP) BEIRUT – The Syrian regime said Monday there will be no dialogue with the opposition before the army crushes the rebels, the latest sign that President Bashar Assad is determined to solve the crisis on the battlefield …..“There will be no dialogue with the opposition prior to the Syrian army’s imposition of security and stability in all parts of the country,” Information Minister Omran al-Zoebi told reporters at a news conference in Damascus.…”

Posted by G, M, Z, or B at 3:41 AM
]]> By: who_me http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15232 who_me Thu, 30 Aug 2012 18:39:14 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15232 mursi shows he can suck that israeli peanut like the rest of the zionist quislings:

http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-opposition-group-not-job-says-ex-member-114709110.html

“DUBAI/AMMAN (Reuters) – Egypt called on Thursday for intervention to halt bloodshed in Syria, telling a meeting of 120 nations it was their duty to stand against the “oppressive regime” of Bashar al-Assad, prompting a Syrian walkout.”

i suspect mubarak may not have been as pliable to zionazi demands, so they got rid of him and replaced him with a quisling less independent and totally loyal to israel.

]]> By: Alex http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15137 Alex Tue, 28 Aug 2012 20:41:24 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15137 Sorry for the mis-spells

]]> By: fool me once... http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15136 fool me once... Tue, 28 Aug 2012 19:53:18 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15136 Oops, I read your comment like an article Alex and thought you’d be able to correct it, sorry.

]]> By: fool me once... http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15134 fool me once... Tue, 28 Aug 2012 19:43:38 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15134 @Alex
Still reading, but I think you’ve done a couple of mis-spells on Roy’s name and called him Joy.

]]> By: Alex http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15132 Alex Tue, 28 Aug 2012 19:29:40 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15132 On August 22 you write “It’s too Late for Assad’s Resignation,” now you give detailed variants of his likely departure? What has changed in 4 days, Roy?
Arianda
Nothing changed in 4 days.
When Roy wrote, It’s Too Late for Assad’s Resignation, he echoes what the so-called Syrian opposition used to say after everything Assad did during the past 17 months to end the Syrian crisis.
If I understood him well, Roy in his above article written after 4 days, is saying that Assad’s “blood brothers- Republic Guards” will not let him resign, so Roy gave “detailed variants of Assad’s likely departure?.”
In short, Roy stormed his mind to find an exit for Assad and his “blood brothers” to northeastern Syria, but moving there is risky because “The IDF will for sure attempt to destroy such a convoy.”
Roy in his second article is trying to solve Assad’s moving problem.
Until I looked in the Map he posted in his previous article, I failed to understand why Roy is talking about moving to Kurd northeastern Syria, not to Alawites northwestern Syria.
Syrian Civil War – August 2012

 

Most likely Roy believes that Assad will lose Aleppo, Idlib, Deraa, Homs and Damascus, and the road to Alawites northwestern Syria is not safe, so Roy would send Assad and his blood brothers to northeastern Syria, “The safest approach would be for Assad to move overland to the northeastern part of his territory, which is controlled by Kurds.”
Roy ignored that “the Syrian government withdrew troops from the Kurdish northeast” not only to sent them into the areas controlled by rebels.”. The withdrawal was a challenge to turkey to interfere, and fill the vacuum.
My problem with Roy’s above article is the assumption he made
  • The conflict “runs also along ethnic lines” (its more true to say sectarian lines) but ignoring the other lines, ignoring the other sects.
  • “All of the Syrian Army pilots are Alawites, as is much of the Republican Guard”, ignoring that the pilot who defected to Jordan is not an Alawites, and his defection happened under Assad’s eyes. Joy contradicted himself when he admitted that Manaf Tlas was a Brigadier General of the Syrian Republican Guard and member of Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle, and Manaf’s father the former Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass was a very prominent figure in the Syrian Administration.
  • The Syrian government “regaining control of Aleppo, the country’s main trade center” lost the control in Damascus, the country’s capital, which was supposed to be safe under the protection of the Republican Guard, Syria’s Army elite unit”, ignoring that the so-called FSA, has suffered the un-lucky Damascus strike planned to “decapitate its opponent”
  • The FSA can’t surrenders, because “everything will look like before; ignoring that in 1980′s mercenaries has been “mysteriously swallowed” by the western puppet regimes in Jordan and Gulf States.

With above assumptions Roy the way to his “different scenario is likely to happen”, the Assad regime may decides “to improve its positions backwards” (polite “militarese” for “withdrawal”), “It will be defined by the nature of this regime in general, and the Republican Guard in particular”

After telling us with fascination the story of his schoolmate, the chosen Kingfisher soldier, Roy knew and studied with in the same high-school, “who without having an unimpressive can easily open any lock, he said that technical capabilities is not enough to forge the loyalty needed to perform operations behind enemy lines, where you must trust your fellow combatant to death…these soldiers watch each other perform crimes; they posses so much embarrassing knowledge about each other that—if I may use a sarcastic form of this phrase—they become “blood brothers. This explains the oddly polite relation between Barak and Netanyahu despite the bitter political rivalry between them.”
Having prepared his reader’s he dropped his “bombshell”

“The Syrian Republican Guard is the parallel of the IDF elite units with a twist, they also perform bodyguard tasks. They are the only military unit allowed into Damascus, and sum up a full division, roughly 10,000 soldiers. Nowadays, the unit is led by Bashar al-Assad’s brother, Maher. The guard’s loyalty is enhanced also by ethnic considerations.”

On reading this comparison, I recalled Uri Avnery who imagined “posters condemning Binyamin al-Assad and Bashar Netanyahu.”
ROY’s “point is simple. Since the conflict is also ethnic, the losers can’t leave anybody behind. .. Any evacuation plan by Assad must take into account the Republican Guard; he can’t split it, he can’t dismantle it. Assad knows that the only way to ensure the loyalty of those who will provide the military security he needs for the evacuation will demand the safety of all his blood brothers .”
In short, Assad can’t win, can’t resign, and can’t withdraw alone.

“The aerial (withdrawal) route is unlikely to be chosen. To transport well over 10,000 people (the Republican Guard and the core of the Assad Administration) quietly and safely is almost impossible. It would be such a temptation for Israel to strike such a convoy, that it is better not to put this to test. The safest approach would be for Assad to move overland to the northeastern part of his territory, which is controlled by Kurds. From there, he may create an enclave from where to conduct the resistance, move to the Shi’a parts of Iraq, or even reach Iran. These options would be feasible. Since the beginning of 2012, two clear signs of this plan had emerged.”

Assuming, that Joy is right, I wonder why Assad should move to the northeastern part of his territory which is controlled by Kurds, and not to the northwestern part of his territory which is controlled by Alawites, where he would engoy a sea front and Tartus Russian base, and the Sspport of 15 million Alawites living north in Iskenderun?
As far as I remember when Patrick Seale asked Hafez Assad what would happen in case his power is threatened, Assad’s answer was: Well we will have heavy traffic on Damascus-Lathekya road.
It’s very naive to assume that Kurds would be more loyal to Assad than his fellow Alawites.
WHY he would leave Homs where Alawites, Christians are part of the population fabric and lose his access to Hezbollah in Bekaa? Why he would leave Deraa and his front with Israel and betray Druze who supported him?


“Moving overland such a mass of people and the core equipment needed for the new administration is not easy. Such a convoy takes time and space. It will be seen by a million predatory eyes. It can be intercepted in a million ways before it finds a haven. Assad must make sure that the most probable organization capable of blocking his move would be neutralized for a while. The IDF will for sure attempt to destroy such a convoy.”

HOWEVER, ROY after assuring that IDF will for sure attempt to destroy Assad’s convoy, he remembered that “the IDF acknowledged it cannot deal with massive destruction of industrial and civilian infrastructure (see IDF: Home Front Command not ready for war with Iran). This is particularly grave due to the highly poisonous qualities of some of Israel’s industrial areas.”

So, Assad has an opportunity. “The Republican Guard is responsible for the operation of chemical and biological weapons; Syria and Israel are among the largest owners of these in the world. If Assad decides to relocate out of Damascus, probably he will make sure a large distraction keeps the IDF busy. In another odd distortion of the phrase, Israel and Syria would become blood brothers.”
 
I will end my comment saying, Assad, 8 years ago, refused the “safest” way to “save” himself, his so-called “blood brothers”, his fellow Alawites, by accepting Colin Powell demands.
]]> By: Ariadna Theokopoulos http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15096 Ariadna Theokopoulos Mon, 27 Aug 2012 19:58:15 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15096 On August 22 you write “It’s too Late for Assad’s Resignation,” now you give detailed variants of his likely departure? What has changed in 4 days, Roy?

]]> By: Somoe http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15092 Somoe Mon, 27 Aug 2012 19:43:28 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15092 I have to disagree with Roy Tov on this matter – I don’t think it is inevitable that the Assad government will fall. I really don’t think Assad will submit to the rebels and extract himself and his tribe from the homeland. An interesting take on the situation though.

]]> By: who_me http://www.deliberation.info/the-syrian-gambit/#comment-15063 who_me Mon, 27 Aug 2012 04:58:28 +0000 http://www.deliberation.info/?p=19562#comment-15063 is tov prepping the peanut gallery for the destruction of syria?

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