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It’s Too Late for Assad’s Resignation

syriancivilwarOn August 22, 2012, two news items related to Syria converged into an unprecedented escalation in the ongoing tragedy. The first was a statement made the day before by Syrian Vice President Qadri Jamil; he said that Damascus is willing to discuss President Bashar al-Assad’s resignation. He said that “all problems can come up during negotiations, and we will be willing to discuss this issue,” rejecting thus the resignation condition imposed by the rebels. Repeating arguments openly alleged by Russia last November, he rejected the U.S. President’s warning that the use or deployment of chemical or biological weapons in this conflict would constitute a red-line for the United States, arguing that the West is looking for an excuse to act militarily against Syria, as it did in 2003 in Iraq. He also claimed that such a military attack would extend beyond the country’s borders. Reading this, one would immediately assume that Israel was implied in the statement. Yet, on the following day, violence overflowed Syria’s borders into northern Lebanon, when eight people died and 75 were wounded in Tripoli. The war entered a new phase; unlike what happened in Libya, it is deteriorating into an ethnic war.

The complex situation in Syria includes two main struggles. The most obvious one is between the Syrian Army and the West-backed Free Syrian Army. In parallel, there is a violent conflict between the Alawite minority-closely related to Shia Islam-and Sunni Arabs. The Alawite comprise roughly 12% of the population and hold the power; the Assad dynasty is Alawite. The Sunni are 74% of the population and are attempting to use the ongoing mayhem in order to gain power. The ethnic conflict is conducted by paramilitary organizations trying to evict each other from their respective territories. The most visible result of this conflict is the gathering of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and the incessant reports of massacres of civilians. The Syrian Army-where Alawites enjoy a privileged position-favors the Alawite population, thus the ethnic struggle is a tie despite the unequal forces involved. Now, the ethnic struggle has overflowed into Lebanon.

Last night was the second night of fights between Alawites and Sunnis over the control of Tripoli; Lebanon’s second largest city after Beirut. This event is a surprise because Alawites are a very small minority in Lebanon. Lebanon’s ethnic mosaic is as complex as the Syrian one; however, it is quite different with an insignificant percentage of Alawites as the estimations in the maps below show. No census has been taken since 1932, thus there is no reliable information on the exact composition of this society. Moreover, the almost constant state of violence this small country has experienced since then makes evaluations difficult as the graphs below show. Lebanon had been unstable for a long period of time, with a civil war that took place between 1975 and 1990. The Syrian army occupied large parts of Lebanon between 1975 and 2005. Israel violently occupied much of its south from 1982 to 2000, and a short war took place between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. All these have caused population shifts that have not been completely quantified. Eventually, it reached a new stage when gunshots were exchanged yesterday between the Sunni district of Bab al-Tabbana and the Alawites Jabal Muhsin, and caused the abovementioned deadly result. This is a direct consequence of the violence in Syria. Without the events in Syria acting as a trigger, yesterday’s violence couldn’t have been possible. Moreover, last week, Lebanese Shia kidnapped dozens of Sunni Muslims in reprisal for the seizure of a Lebanese Shia man by Syrian rebels in Syria.


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Seldom can one witness poetic justice in a sufferable amount of time. Yet, in the recent events concerning Syria we see how an international attempt to bring regime change in Syria is deteriorating, overflowing the country’s borders and becoming ethnic in nature. This is bad news for some of the countries supporting the rebels, mainly Turkey, which is by far the major recipient of Syrian refugees and itself suffers serious ethnic issues with its Kurd population. Lebanon and Jordan are also bound to be clear victims of the process, which bears no good news for existing national entities. The caricature reproduced here was drawn in 1918 by John F. Knott and was named “It Shoots Further Than He Dreams.” Militarism is shown there as targeting itself from around the globe; a century later it reaches us fresher than ever.

“Never believe something until it is formally denied by the state,” I was told many years ago. I remembered this when reading about the offer made by the abovementioned Syrian Vice President. Is the Syrian regime trying to cut its head by itself? This is hard to believe; more significant is its refusal to make any changes in the regime without a negotiation process. This is bound to be lengthy; this is the reason for the offer. Bashar al-Assad is trying to gain time while preparing something else. It is too late for its resignation; the conflict has gone international and ethnic.

Poetic Justice

Poetic Justice

For many years, Syria supported the Kurds in Turkey, giving them a haven in mountainous areas across the border. It was less benevolent towards the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Since colonial times, Kurds seek a state that would be geographically centered on the triple border among these countries. In recent months, Bashar al-Assad offered certain benefits to Kurds living in Syria. Thousands of them finally got their citizenship after many years. In recent weeks, the Syrian government withdrew troops from the northeast and sent them into the areas controlled by rebels (see map above). The safety of the move may have been underlined by further promises to the Kurds. In a state transformed into an ethnic mosaic run by local warlords, these alliances mean everything and may provide a glimpse of the future. Is disintegrating Syria planning to hit back at Turkey by promoting a Kurdish State? Is Bashar al-Assad planning a dramatic escape through Kurd-controlled areas into the relative safety of Shia areas in Iraq or Iran that may grant him refuge? He still owns a mighty army. A bullet was hit by the West; it began what is now called the “Arab Spring.” It went all around, its ricochets hit here and there, almost at random. It even hit Mubarak, one of Uncle Sammy the Shooter’s best friends. Steadily losing momentum, it almost completed its way around the world, showing Uncle Sammy the Shooter that militarism leads only to a very cold grave

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10 Responses to It’s Too Late for Assad’s Resignation

  1. Rehmat August 23, 2012 at 2:46 am #

    Even if Bashar al-Assad decide to resign – like in Egypt and Yemen – the pro-Bashar armed forces will never give-up the power – which means Damascus will remain part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ against the Zionist entity. And that will never be acceptable to the ‘Axis of Evil (US-Israel-Saudia’.

    the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ was given birth during a conference in New York by the US State Department, CIA, Mossad and the Jewish owners of internet social media groups. Its aim is the fragmentation of Middle Eastern countries which could pose threat to the security of Israel.

    So far, Israel is only state which has benefitted from the Arab Spring. However, Syria has put a road-block to US-Israeli march to Iran.

    After realizing that Israel cannot win a war with Iran alone, the Zionist regime has come up with a new ‘face-saving’ excuse. Israeli business information group BDI-Coface has projected that Israeli attack against Iran could cost Israel over 167 billion shekels ($42 billion), not to mention thousands of Jews killed and billions of dollars damage to Israeli infrastructure.

    However, the real reason behind Netanyahu-Barak reluctance to attack Iran is based on Israeli military hierarchy being afraid about the prospect of going it alone without full US backing.

    http://rehmat1.com/2012/08/23/israel-will-not-attack-iran-its-too-costly/

  2. who_me August 23, 2012 at 4:26 am #

    “the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ was given birth during a conference in New York by the US State Department, CIA, Mossad and the Jewish owners of internet social media groups. Its aim is the fragmentation of Middle Eastern countries which could pose threat to the security of Israel.”

    yup

    “So far, Israel is only state which has benefitted from the Arab Spring. However, Syria has put a road-block to US-Israeli march to Iran.”

    also, syria is one of the few countries that help the palestinian resistance against the zionazi greater israel psychoville. if syria goes, lebanon probably will follow, and the chance of changing the zionazi freak show into a democratic palestine will probably pass the point of no return.

  3. who_me August 23, 2012 at 10:28 pm #

    the israelis often used unsuspecting people for their “suicide” bombs. having their terrorists pack released kidnap victims with explosives is probably thought of as an economical way to reduce the excess goy population in future lebensraum territory. for the jewish zionist, and their goy quislings, there no of level of depravity that is too low:

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article32264.htm

    Syrian Insurgents Using Captured Prisoners As Suicide Bombers

    BBC Video Report

    and naturally, the bbc slyly and “judaciously” played down the significance of this exposure. a look on google news didn’t bring up this report, but then that is to be expected given their past burying of news items exposing their side’s crimes.

  4. botafogo August 24, 2012 at 10:30 am #

    a very funny article indeed, bordering on sheer second hand rubbish.

    “The Sunni are 74% of the population and are attempting to use the ongoing mayhem in order to gain power.”

    out of these 74% BY FAR NOT ALL syrian sunnis “are attempting to use the ongoing mayhem in order to gain power.” i, for instance, have sunni friends in Syria who are solidly on the government’s side.
    btw the majority of people in the syrian government and governmental structures are sunnis.
    so the overall majority of the syrian people, across the religious divide, do support the government, one can see it from the recent referendum on the new syrian constitution and even from a public opinion poll in Syria ordered by none other than the emir of Qatar!

    “… gunshots were exchanged yesterday between the Sunni district of Bab al-Tabbana and the Alawites Jabal Muhsin, ….
    Without the events in Syria acting as a trigger, yesterday’s violence couldn’t have been possible.”

    this violence in Tarablus between the salafi and moustaqbal sunnis(normal sunnis like e.g. Omar Karame have nothing to do with this violence) and the alawis not only COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE but actually DID happen more than once in the past, like 3 or 4 years ago, when everything in Syria was completely quiet and placid.

    “Moreover, last week, Lebanese Shia kidnapped dozens of Sunni Muslims in reprisal for the seizure of a Lebanese Shia man by Syrian rebels in Syria”

    what a bunch of crap! firstly, it’s not “Lebanese Shia” who kidnapped but a large lebanese clan which counts among its members not only shia but sunni and christian lebanese as well.
    and secondly, they did not kidnap just any “Sunni Muslims in reprisal for the seizure of a Lebanese Shia” but syrian rebel operatives in Lebanon plus 2 turkish citiziens whose country they consider responsible for the kidnapping of one of their clan by syrian rebels.
    and btw just look at the different verbs Roy Tov uses for the same action: according to him “Lebanese Shia KIDNAP Sunni Muslims” but “Syrian rebels in Syria SEIZE a Lebanese Shia man”.
    of course KIDNAPPING is always bad, illegal, whereas SEIZURE sounds perfectly legal! well done, Roy Tov!

    and to conclude – why showing next to the article’s title the demographics of Lebanon( “Snia Muslim 26.2%”) dating back probably to the days of the french mandate? to create confusion among the readers?

    the shia in nowadays Lebanon are by far the LARGEST single group by all estimates and constitute definitely more than 40% of the population

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthodox_Christianity_in_Lebanon

    btw this same demographics map of Lebanon shows in the article but for some reason an outdated one was chosen by the author for the article’s heading. what was that reason?

  5. Daniel Mabsout August 25, 2012 at 11:47 am #

    “The Syrian Army-where Alawites enjoy a privileged position-favors the Alawite population, thus the ethnic struggle is a tie despite the unequal forces involved”, Roy Tov.
    The Syrian army is a national army and not a Alawite army that favors Alawites , if it were not a national army it could not have resisted and would have fallen apart. The army constitutes the strength of the regime that is secular and non religious , if one is to speak religion , key positions in the army are held by Sunnis who form a large portion of the national army . All attempts at dividing the army failed . One also should not speak about ethnic or religious struggle in Syria , because this lacks precision , it is not that the rebels are Sunnis facing a minority of Alawites . Syria is under foreign attack that has taken the form of a sectarian or religious conflict , there is a conspiracy and assault the same way Libya was assaulted . The rebels are hired killers , they are not only Syrians , 10 thousand mercenaries have been introduced to Syria by boats who were carrying the UN flags , the first ones came from Libya , now they are coming from various Muslim countries and introduced through Lebanon and Turkey ; they have been trained and equipped by foreign intelligence into partaking in internal wars and committing atrocities , foreign coordinators are on the ground from Great Britain , France and Turkey to guide the mercenaries and coordinate their efforts . Qatar and KSA are financing and arming , the reason why fights spread to Lebanon is probably the 4 billions given to ex PM Hariri by the Saudi king as a present on the feast , probably as a down payment to create a buffer zone on the northern Lebanese/Syrian border . The next day the situation in Tripoli escalated seriously .

  6. Alex August 25, 2012 at 5:13 pm #
    I fully agree with brother mabsout “The Syrian army is a national army and not a Alawite army that favors Alawites , if it were not a national army it could not have resisted and would have fallen apart. The army constitutes the strength of the regime that is secular and non religious , if one is to speak religion , key positions in the army are held by Sunnis who form a large portion of the national army”

    I would add that the majority of the Syrian army are people (70% are Sunnis) doing their military service.

    So far the friends of Syria failed to turn the so -called “uprising” into a sectarian conflict, the high-level Sunni defections in Syria(Tlas, Riad Hijab and few ambassadors)though came very late, remained few and far between, and required expensive and complicated operations to execute them, it exposed Sectarian Agenda, towards “Lebanonization” of the Syrian conflict, through giving a false indication that the defectors are trying to save themselves before the collapse of the regime, a false indication that it has become impossible for Sunni politicians to defend their position within the regime as happened during the Lebanese Civil War.

    If so why convincing them to defect required so much effort? Why non-Sunni have different calculations?

    Finally, there is no clear role for any of the defectors to play within the opposition or in directing the so-called uprising. On the heels of his meeting with Tlass in Paris, Abdulbaset Sieda, the head of Istanbul council said that General Manaf Tlass and former Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab would not be part of a future transition government.


     
     
  7. Alex August 26, 2012 at 4:35 pm #
    sharaa_boroujerdiLast week, the whereabouts of Farouk al-Sharaa, Syria’s Vice President, was among the top news about Syria, While Syria denied that he has defected, the (FSA) claims that he is under their protection in Syria, and anti-Syria media considered his “defection” as a serious development.

    Today Farouk al-Sharaa received the Iranian Chairman of the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy Alaeddin Boroujerdi, refuting by this move claims of his defections.

    • who_me August 26, 2012 at 11:44 pm #

      “Today Farouk al-Sharaa received the Iranian Chairman of the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy Alaeddin Boroujerdi, refuting by this move claims of his defections.”

      since when does the truth figure in jewish zionist propaganda. :D

      years ago i heard an interview with a guy who used to write for one of the tabloids, like star, that one finds at grocery store check-outs, which american housewives keep in business. the guy said they had a stock of photos and when he did an article, he would first rummage through these stock photos to find one that gave him an idea for a story, then make up whatever filler needed to pad the fantasy out. he was jewish and gay, naturally, so the thought of having some integrity didn’t enter into the picture. it paid well and he didn’t have to work for a living. this is what jewish ownership and management has reduced all the western news media to, including many of the alternatives.

      to shamelessly rip-off the stones, what jewish fascist dominance has done to the media would make a dead goebbels come.

  8. Jay Knott August 27, 2012 at 2:27 am #

    Here’s an article by Robert Fisk of the Independent about Syria, which accuses all sides of atrocities. He’s usually a more objective reporter on the Middle East than most journalists: http://tinyurl.com/8vxkc9p

    Sometimes, I can’t tell whether he’s being sarcastic: “The Allies of the Second World War did their share of extrajudicial executions – though on nothing like the scale of their enemies”.

    “German historians who set out to prove the criminality of the Wehrmacht still face abuse”. Really?

    • who_me August 27, 2012 at 2:41 am #

      jay jay

      does mathis approve of fisk. did he give you permission to post that?

      did mideast “expert” fisk ever learn arabic?

      fisk has been been pro-israeli about syria since the beginning of the zionazi criminal assault on those people. his credibility is down there with the rest of the jewish corporate media propagandists. his previous attempts to pin the mossad murder of harari on syria:

      http://news.infoshop.org/article.php?story=2005021608172159

      have pretty much killed his undeserved reputation as an objective reporter. you’re flogging spoiled meat, jay. he is now considered a israeli tool.

      but obviously, your sort of “independent journalist”, jay.

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