Footer Pages

Behind the Deepening Crisis with Iran: The Real Story Versus the Cover Story

By Mark H Gaffney

February 21, 2012 “Information Clearing House”

Recently, President Obama imposed new sanctions on Iran which according to reports have been very effective, causing a sudden major devaluation of Iran’s currency. The Iranians correctly understand that they are under attack, and have threatened to respond by closing the strait of Hormuz, through which a large percentage of oil from the Mideast flows to the global economy.

If the crisis deepens and Iran makes good on its threat to close Hormuz, there is little doubt that the US will intervene to reopen the strait. This will lead to a shooting war for which Iran will be blamed, even though the recent US sanctions were tantamount to overt aggression.

I believe the US will exploit the situation to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. But, even more importantly, the US will target Iran’s conventional missiles. Indeed, I believe this is the real reason for US sanctions in the first place, and for the buildup of tensions in recent days. Despite public perceptions, and all the rhetoric about nukes, the present crisis has nothing to do with Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. In my opinion, that is just a cover story.

The real issue is the fact that Iran has upgraded its medium range conventionally-armed missiles with GPS technology, making its missiles much more accurate. This means Iran can now target Israel’s own nuclear, bio and chemical weapons stockpiles, located inside Israel, as well as the Dimona nuclear reactor.

In short, Iran has achieved a conventional deterrent to Israel. Therefore, statements by Iranian officials that Iran has no nuclear weapons program are in my view probably correct. Presently, Iran does not need nukes to deter Israel. It can do so with its GPS-guided medium range missiles. The Israelis are no doubt gnashing their teeth over this, because they now find themselves threatened by their own WMD stockpiles, and by their own nuclear reactors, especially Dimona, all of which have become targets.

A few direct hits by Iran could cause a toxic plume, killing thousands of Israelis. A worst case might signal the end of the Jewish state.

It is important to realize that Iran would never launch a pre-emptive strike on Israel because the Iranians know that the US/Israeli response would be devastating. However, if Iran comes under attack first, all bets are off. Iran will defend itself. A counter attack on Israel cannot be ruled out because Iranian leaders understand clearly (even if the American people do not) that the crisis has been manufactured, on Israel’s behalf.

From the Israeli standpoint, the present Iranian deterrent (though conventional) is simply unacceptable. Israel’s military strategists have always insisted on total freedom of movement. This is why Israel refused a US offer many years ago to sign a defense pact with the US. Such a treaty would have limited Israel’s freedom of movement, and this was unacceptable. Israel’s leaders preferred to remain independent. Israel has always insisted on the “freedom” to intimidate its neighbors, whenever and howsoever it chooses. Iran’s conventional missiles now curtail that “freedom.” Israeli officials probably worry, for example, that Iran’s conventional missiles would limit its freedom to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, in a future conflict. Hezbollah is closely allied with Tehran.

I believe the present crisis has been manufactured to create the pretext for a US air campaign to take out Iran’s conventional missile sites. The US will also target Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the primary target will be Iran’s conventional missiles. The US will be doing Israel’s bidding. The Zionist tail will be wagging the servile US dog.

Obviously, you can’t generate public support for such a bombing campaign, on Israel’s behalf. Hence the cover story about nukes and the alleged Iranian threat to wipe Israel off the map, all of which is untrue but very effective propaganda nonetheless.

The problem for the US is that depriving Iran of its conventional deterrent will not be easy to accomplish. Indeed, it will be even more difficult than taking out all of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s conventional missiles are probably dispersed widely. If they come under attack, the purpose of the air campaign will be transparently obvious to the Iranian leadership. Faced with the prospect of losing their deterrent, the Mullahs may well decide to fire their conventional missiles. If they do and manage some direct hits on Israel’s nuclear-bio-and chemical weapons stockpiles, the ensuing disaster will prompt an Israeli response. Israel may even resort to the Samson Option, and attack Iran with nukes. Words cannot describe the horrific scale of such an outcome. Unfortunately, it is all too possible.

Early in the war, US naval  forces in the Gulf will also come under attack. No mistake, Iran has enough anti-ship cruise missiles to pose a grave threat to the US naval presence in the Gulf. Thousands of US sailors are now in harm’s way, and at risk.

We must rally to prevent such a war. Peace activists must now marshal every asset for peace that we possess. The American people need to know the truth. This is a phony crisis. Yet the danger is very real. Now is the time to speak out with all of our strength. Tomorrow could come too late.

Mark H Gaffney’s forthcoming book, Black 9/11, will be released soon by Trineday Press. It can be ordered at www.trineday.com

 

, , , ,

8 Responses to Behind the Deepening Crisis with Iran: The Real Story Versus the Cover Story

  1. who_me September 19, 2012 at 7:59 pm #

    very informative article. good explanation of the current israeli/jp hysteria.

  2. Deadbeat September 20, 2012 at 12:03 am #

    I have to agree. This article clearly explains why Iran has no need for nuclear weapons and has an antidote to Israel’s so-called “Samson” option.

  3. who_me September 20, 2012 at 3:29 am #

    are the zionazis preparing for another invasion of lebanon, and also syria?

    http://rt.com/news/israel-golan-war-drills-480/

    “The Chief of IDF General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz ordered troops from the Northern and Central commands, reinforced by reservists, to simulate an emergency. The IDF insists the drill is a routine scheduled event, but for unknown reasons withheld from making public how many troops and what military vehicles are being involved in the war games.”

  4. happeh September 20, 2012 at 3:38 pm #

    “Peace activists must now marshal every asset for peace that we possess. The American people need to know the truth. This is a phony crisis. Yet the danger is very real. Now is the time to speak out with all of our strength. Tomorrow could come too late.”

    This guy is an idiot. We all did that for the Iraq war and what did it accomplish?

    Nothing.

    The government does not listen to anyone. They do what they want. Anyone who believes otherwise is a fool.

  5. Rehmat September 20, 2012 at 5:02 pm #

    From the horse’s mouth….

    On January 17, 2012 – Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, head of the Israel Occupation Force (IOF) planning department, told reporters in Jerusalem that once Iran poseses nuclear arsenal, it will make hard for Israel to defeat Hamas and Hizbullah.

    ”If we are forced to do things in Gaza or in Lebanon – under the Iranian nuclear umbrella it might be different,” said Amir Eshel.

    http://rehmat1.com/2012/01/24/israel-nuclear-iran-makes-hard-to-defeat-hamas-and-hizbullah/

  6. who_me September 20, 2012 at 7:43 pm #

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/09/20/262680/israel-root-of-world-problems/

    “Iran’s Ambassador to Beirut Ghazanfar Roknabadi says although Israel is the main reason behind all international problems, Washington continues to support the Zionist regime.

    “The security of the Zionist regime [of Israel] is the most important issue for Washington officials and they consider it sacred,” Roknabadi added in an interview with Lebanon’s Al-Manar television.”

    it’s fairly easy to understand this. i wonder why it is so difficult for most western pundits to come out and say it?

  7. who_me September 21, 2012 at 8:46 am #

    http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_09_21/Iran-misled-MI-6-which-misled-IAEA/

    “Iran has misled the British Intelligence Agency MI-6 on its nuclear program according to a statement made in an interview with the Arabic daily “Al-Hayat” by the vice-president of Iran, Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani who is also the head of the Iranian delegation to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.

    According to him, afterwards, the same misinformation came into the hands of the agency itself.

    “We monitored the activities of the British Foreign Intelligence Service and sometimes we gave them false information in order to protect our nuclear facilities and our interests,” said the politician.

    “Sometimes we showed weakness, where we are strong. Sometimes we showed strength where we are weak,” he added.”

    i wonder if he was smiling when making that announcement. i’ll bet few at mi6 smiled on hearing that piece of news, though. ;)

  8. who_me September 22, 2012 at 1:17 am #

    are the zionazis about to follow in the footsteps of their spiritual heroes, the nazis, and start ww3?

    http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_09_21/Is-everybody-getting-ready-for-a-war/

    “Against the background of the growing political tensions in the region, on September 19 Israel conducted a brief but full-scale military exercise on the Golan Heights that was designed to test the level of combat readiness of the Israeli Army in the event of a sudden attack. The observers believe that the most probable reason for such an attack from the states neighboring the Golans would be a potential Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    The exercise in the Golans only took a day, but was quite intensive. Military units from all regions of the country were engaged in it. In its turn, that exercise was just a part of a series of such full-scale exercises of different types; combat arms and services, as well as testing the readiness of the civilian population for a potential beginning of a military conflict. In late August the Israeli Home Front Command together with the rescue services conducted an exercise simulating the evacuation of civilians from buildings as well as tested the civilian population warning systems that warned people of a missile strike via mobile telephone text messages. Bomb shelters were also inspected.”

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: